Recent forecast models from sources like the Met Office and regional outlooks indicate a southerly wind shift and cold front arriving over Wellington on October 15, 2026, advecting cooler maritime air masses while widespread rain and cloud cover limit daytime heating. This setup points to daytime highs near 15°C with overnight minima clustering around 8–12°C depending on the exact timing of the change and wind speeds, which enhance mixing and suppress radiative cooling. Trader consensus favoring a 10°C low reflects this central tendency amid model spread, while elevated odds on both warmer and colder thresholds capture uncertainty in frontal passage and precipitation intensity. Historical October averages near 11°C provide baseline context, but the imminent weather pattern dominates near-term positioning.