Recent model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance points to a mild southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal system, keeping Warsaw’s overnight minimum on October 14 near 7–9 °C. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with little support for sub-5 °C readings or a sharp cold-air intrusion. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 9 °C or higher and the cluster of probabilities around 0–8 °C, reflecting trader assessment of limited radiative cooling under the expected overcast and light-rain regime. Updated runs through the weekend and early next week will refine the exact low, particularly any late-night clearing that could allow a slightly deeper drop.