**Current forecasts from numerical weather models and official monitoring indicate an overnight minimum near 5°C in Warsaw, driven by persistent cloud cover, light westerly winds, and high humidity that limit radiative cooling after daytime highs around 11–12°C.** Recent precipitation has further moderated temperature drops, keeping the low in a narrow band consistent with the market’s strong 95% implied probability on 5°C. This aligns with slightly below-normal October conditions for the region. Resolution hinges on the final official station reading; realistic challenges include clearer skies enabling extra cooling to 4°C or localized variations pushing the minimum higher. New model runs and real-time observations remain the key near-term catalysts.