Recent forecast models, including GFS runs and Polish IMGW guidance, indicate overnight lows in Warsaw on October 13 will likely reach 6–8°C under building high pressure near 1025 hPa and light westerly flow of polar maritime air. This setup favors clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal cloud cover after midnight, promoting radiational cooling that aligns with climatological October minima near 7–9°C. Current conditions on October 12, featuring persistent rain and temperatures falling to 7–8°C overnight, reinforce the downward trend without strong warm advection. Market-implied odds favoring 10°C or higher at 49% may reflect lingering uncertainty in exact minimum timing or model spread, while the cluster around 6–8°C outcomes captures the consensus for the day’s lowest reading before daytime recovery to 12–13°C. Updated model runs and official station observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.