Mild southerly flow and a stable air mass have kept overnight temperatures in Toronto from dropping sharply on October 12, 2026, with official forecasts and hourly observations converging on a daily minimum near 14°C. Environment Canada guidance and multiple model runs project lows holding between 13–17°C amid cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with the market’s 95% implied probability for exactly 14°C. Historical October averages near 8°C highlight the anomaly, driven by above-normal warmth rather than typical radiative cooling. Minor forecast revisions from updated model ensembles could still shift the recorded low by 1–2°C before midnight, though current data make colder thresholds unlikely.