Forecast models for Qingdao on October 16 show a minimum temperature near 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and southeasterly flow, but small shifts in cloud cover, timing of light rain, or boundary-layer mixing can easily push the overnight low below 15°C or hold it above 21°C. Southerly winds advect milder maritime air while increasing low-level moisture and cloudiness that limits radiational cooling, yet any earlier clearing or stronger northerly surge would favor sharper drops. Official guidance from regional meteorological centers highlights modest spread among ensemble members precisely in this range, leaving traders split between the 14°C-or-below and 24°C-or-higher brackets as new model runs and surface observations arrive.