Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicates a mild overnight period for Qingdao on October 15, with southerly winds of 3–6 m/s and limited cloud cover expected to moderate radiative cooling. This setup typically supports minimum temperatures near 18–20 °C, yet the near-even split between the 14 °C-or-below and 15 °C outcomes reflects residual uncertainty in the precise timing of any wind lull or localized clear-sky pockets that could allow greater heat loss. Historical October climatology shows average lows around 15–17 °C, but current guidance favors warmer advection; traders appear focused on small forecast revisions or station-specific readings that could shift the recorded minimum across the narrow threshold before official data finalize.