Forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF show notable spread in Munich's expected overnight minimum for October 17, with some runs indicating lows near 6–9°C amid increased cloud cover and light showers, while others project 10–12°C under milder advection. This uncertainty drives the near-even market split between sub-4°C and 13°C+ outcomes, as radiative cooling rates depend heavily on timing of northwest winds, humidity levels near 80–90%, and any break in cloud cover overnight. Current conditions feature mild highs of 17–20°C with light southerly flow, but a frontal passage expected Saturday introduces variability in minimum thresholds. Traders weigh these ensemble differences against typical mid-October baselines around 7–10°C for the city. Updated model runs and local observations will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.