**Latest model runs from GFS and Open-Meteo highlight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight as the key driver pushing market-implied odds toward lows near or below -1°C to -3°C.** High pressure, light southerly then shifting winds, and dry autumn air at Munich’s ~514 m elevation enhance heat loss from the surface after daytime highs around 15–16°C. This setup aligns with typical mid-October patterns where clear nights can produce sharp drops, though model spread on exact timing of any increased cloud cover or wind remains a source of uncertainty. Traders appear to weigh the potential for deeper cooling against official DWD station data that will determine the daily minimum.