Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates Moscow's minimum temperature on October 15 will likely fall between 7–10 °C under persistent northerly flow and widespread cloud cover with light rain, keeping diurnal ranges compressed. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between a sub-1 °C outlier and 11 °C-plus readings because short-range ensemble spreads still allow for faster cold-air advection or delayed clearing that could shift the overnight minimum by several degrees. High pressure building from the northeast is the dominant steering feature, but model disagreement on exact timing of any break in the clouds introduces the observed near-50/50 market-implied odds between the extremes. New 00Z and 12Z runs plus surface observations through October 14 will tighten guidance ahead of the 24-hour resolution window.