Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center highlight a cold front crossing Moscow on October 13, shifting winds to northwesterly and advecting cooler air masses that are expected to cap daytime highs at 11–13°C while driving overnight lows into the 8–10°C range amid widespread showers. This aligns with GFS and other model consensus showing modest cooling relative to the prior day's milder conditions near 16–18°C. Trader emphasis on the 4°C-or-below outcome at 50% implied probability likely reflects residual model spread and historical October variability, though current guidance points to a minimum well above that threshold. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow will provide the decisive data for market resolution.