**Forecast models from sources including Open-Meteo and GFS show a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy, producing clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds that favor overnight radiative cooling.** This setup supports an expected minimum temperature in Milan of around 11–13 °C on October 13, aligning with the market’s strong 95 % implied probability for 11 °C. Multiple 14-day and hourly outlooks converge on a low near 12 °C, with dew points in the 10–12 °C range and minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention after sunset. Historical October baselines for the region average lows of 10–13 °C, providing additional context for the current positioning. While model consensus is high, small revisions from updated runs or localized urban heat-island effects could still shift the exact recorded minimum by 1 °C.