Recent forecast models from sources including GFS data indicate overnight lows in Milan on October 13 near 12–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This supports the market-implied 49% probability on 13°C or higher as the leading outcome, reflecting trader consensus on mild conditions typical for mid-October without significant cold air advection or radiative cooling extremes. Lower temperature bins at 33.5% each align with historical variability and model uncertainty ranges around the expected minimum, while the 1% on 3°C or below underscores the low likelihood of anomalous cooling given current atmospheric patterns. Updated model runs and local observations will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.