Recent forecasts from meteorological models, including GFS and Open-Meteo, indicate clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions over Madrid, supporting an overnight low near 13–14°C on October 13 as the day concludes. This aligns with the market's strong 96% implied probability for a 13°C minimum, consistent with typical autumn radiative cooling under calm winds and low humidity. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range in current numerical weather predictions, with minimal model spread expected to alter the outcome. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover or shifts in wind patterns that reduce nocturnal cooling, though such developments remain unlikely given the established atmospheric setup.