Recent ensemble forecasts from global models show Madrid's overnight low on October 16 likely ranging 13–15 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow. A stable high-pressure ridge supports modest radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25–26 °C, while dew points near 10–11 °C and limited cloud cover cap further drops. This places the market-implied 42 % probability on 12 °C or below in line with the lower tail of guidance, while clustered odds around 13–15 °C reflect remaining spread across model runs. The next AEMET and ECMWF updates, plus real-time surface observations, will narrow the expected minimum ahead of resolution.