**Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C low in Madrid on October 12, driven by consistent numerical weather prediction outputs showing overnight radiative cooling under clear, calm conditions.** Multiple model runs, including GFS-based guidance, project minimum temperatures of 12–13°C (roughly 54–55°F) during the pre-dawn hours, with light winds and low humidity promoting efficient heat loss from the surface. This aligns with typical early-October climatology for the Madrid region at ~655 m elevation, where clear anticyclonic conditions often produce the season’s first notable nocturnal dips. Official observations from stations such as Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas will determine the exact recorded minimum. A modest shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover could raise the low toward 12–13°C, while stronger radiational cooling or measurement timing differences remain the primary realistic paths to 10°C or below.