Official observations from the National Weather Service at Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 70°F on October 12, 2026, aligning precisely with the market's dominant 70-71°F outcome at 95% implied probability. Persistent southerly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight warmth well above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 59°F, preventing typical radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Model guidance and real-time station data converged on this range with minimal spread, reinforcing trader consensus backed by verifiable measurements. Scenarios that could have altered resolution include unverified station discrepancies or revised quality-control adjustments, though such revisions remain unlikely given consistent multi-source reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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