**Persistent warm, humid air and southerly flow kept overnight lows elevated across Austin on October 13, 2026.** Official observations recorded a minimum near 77°F, placing the daily low squarely in the 78-79°F range that commands 95.5% market-implied probability. This outcome reflects the absence of a cold front—still forecast for later in the week—combined with dew points in the low-to-mid 70s that limited radiational cooling under mostly cloudy skies. Historical context reinforces the anomaly: the long-term average low for the date is around 59°F, and the prior record warm low stood at 78°F. Trader consensus aligns with National Weather Service and airport station data showing minimal overnight drop from daytime highs in the mid-90s. Only an unexpected late-day measurement revision or station-specific variance could realistically shift resolution outside the leading bin.