Forecast models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature near 11–12°C in Ankara on October 15, driven by increasing cloud cover, light showers, and a moderating westerly flow that limits radiational cooling overnight. Ensemble spreads show limited downside risk below 10°C given current 850 hPa temperatures and dew points, though localized variability in urban heat islands or timing of precipitation could shift the recorded low by 1–2°C. Market pricing, with the strongest implied probability on 7°C or below, appears to embed greater weight on cooler tail scenarios or measurement-site specifics than the consensus guidance supports. Fresh model updates expected overnight will clarify whether any strengthening of the incoming disturbance alters the thermal profile before resolution.