Traders assign overwhelming probability to fewer than five posts from the primary Khamenei accounts during the October 9–16 window because official channels have maintained minimal direct activity since the martyrdom of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader has shifted emphasis toward institutional messages, condolence statements, and commemorative content rather than frequent original posts, with verified accounts issuing only isolated updates tied to events such as prayer conferences or cultural unveilings. Historical patterns of restrained posting during periods of national mourning or leadership consolidation reinforce this consensus. A surge beyond the low-single-digit range would require an unforeseen major development, such as an official response to an acute security incident or diplomatic escalation, within the narrow remaining timeframe.