Traders assign over 90% probability to fewer than five posts because the Supreme Leader’s official X accounts, including @khamenei_ir and @MKhamenei_ir, release statements on a measured schedule tied to specific events rather than routine daily output. Recent activity shows clusters around observances such as Hafez Day or regional developments, with only isolated posts in early October and no surge in volume. This pattern aligns with institutional practice of vetted releases through managed channels, keeping weekly totals low absent immediate catalysts. A major diplomatic development, security incident, or high-profile announcement within the resolution window could increase activity and shift the distribution, though current conditions offer no such trigger.