Recent polling averages project Likud winning roughly 22 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, well below its current 32 seats. This positioning stems from sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties, including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together, amid ongoing fallout from the October 7, 2023 attacks and dissatisfaction with the outgoing coalition’s record. Neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the main opposition bloc consistently reaches the 61 seats needed for a majority, with results sensitive to parties near the electoral threshold. These consistent survey trends underpin the strong trader consensus on Likud seat losses, though final turnout and last-minute developments could still affect outcomes.