The ICC arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu, issued in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza operations, remains active following rejected Israeli appeals, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no Rome Statute member has enforced it. Trader consensus prices near-term arrest probabilities low because the U.S. under President Trump has imposed sanctions on the ICC and explicitly stated Netanyahu will not face detention on American soil, while the prime minister has limited travel to non-cooperating jurisdictions and skipped events such as Davos 2026. His ongoing domestic corruption trial has not produced custody, and recent political developments—including coalition strains ahead of Israel's October 27 elections—have not altered enforcement dynamics. Scheduled diplomatic travel or court rulings could still introduce volatility before year-end resolution dates.