Escalating Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, including multiple strikes and sinkings in the week to October 13, have sharply curtailed transits through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. AIS-visible traffic averaged roughly 9 ships per day recently—about 10% of the pre-crisis baseline of 75-85 daily—while crude flows fell 40% below norms to around 8.5 million barrels per day, supporting Brent crude near $106. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at 15-30 times peacetime levels, deterring operators and favoring lower weekly totals in the 20-29 ship range. US-coordinated southern corridors provide limited relief, but Iranian targeting of shuttle transfers and spotter tactics introduce volatility that keeps adjacent buckets competitive until clearer de-escalation signals emerge.