**Heightened maritime risks stemming from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, now in its eighth month, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz.** Attacks on vessels, including multiple strikes and sinkings in mid-October, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums and major carriers rerouting around the strait, have reduced AIS-visible traffic to roughly 10% of the pre-crisis average of about 85 daily crossings. Recent data show weekly aggregates in the low dozens, with daily counts fluctuating between 4–12 amid selective US-facilitated corridors and Iranian restrictions. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 20–34 ship range captures uncertainty over exact tallies—driven by dark AIS activity, convoy timing, and potential last-minute disruptions—while underscoring traders’ consensus on persistently constrained volumes ahead of any resolution milestones.