Recent military actions and Houthi threats around the Bab el-Mandeb have kept tanker volumes subdued while container carriers accelerate a partial return to the Red Sea route, producing a narrow trading range around 30 daily transits. IMF PortWatch data showed a 30-ship daily average for the week ending October 4, with Lloyd’s List noting September boxship crossings reaching post-crisis highs before a provisional 67-transit count for September 28–October 4. Trader consensus in the 190–229 band reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing Saudi-coalition operations and elevated war-risk premiums will offset the liner recovery, with the closely matched 39.5% and 36.5% implied probabilities underscoring sensitivity to any last-minute volume shifts or AIS reporting gaps. Key upcoming catalysts include further clarity on October transit data and any escalation in Red Sea security incidents.