Recent Houthi strikes on a tanker near Bab el-Mandeb on October 12 have elevated maritime risk premiums and prompted carriers to reassess transits, weighing against a partial recovery in Red Sea volumes that reached weekly averages near 280-290 ships in late September. Ongoing regional tensions, including Saudi counteroffensives and selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, continue to cap throughput, with recent daily estimates hovering around 25-30 vessels amid fluctuating AIS data. Trader consensus in the 170-209 range reflects this balance between incremental liner service restorations and persistent security-driven caution, as elevated freight rates and insurance costs signal sustained volatility without full escalation.