Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 blockade on Saudi-linked shipping and renewed attacks through October, have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits while carriers weigh war-risk premiums and occasional AIS-dark voyages. IMF PortWatch data showed a 30-ship daily average (roughly 210 weekly) through early October, down 10% year-over-year yet up modestly from late-September lows, with Lloyd’s List reporting weekly totals fluctuating between 264 and 290 in September amid partial carrier returns. These dynamics create tight pricing between the 170-189 and 190-209 bands, as traders assess whether escalating regional military activity or selective rerouting will cap volumes near recent averages versus allowing modest stabilization.