Recent Houthi attacks on tankers south of Mokha and the ongoing blockade of Saudi-linked shipping since July have kept Bab el-Mandeb volumes suppressed, with IMF PortWatch reporting a 30-ship daily average (210 weekly) for the week ending October 4 and tanker transits averaging just 10.6 per day. This security environment, marked by vessel rerouting, older fleets, doubled protective AIS messaging, and selective targeting, underpins the tight 36.5%–33.5% split between the 190–209 and 170–189 bins as traders weigh partial recovery against fresh October incidents. Naval escorts from Indian and EU forces provide limited offset, while data revisions and last-minute dark transits add resolution uncertainty for the October 12–18 period.