Texas Republicans' 2025 mid-decade redistricting sought to convert several Democratic-held or competitive South Texas districts into safer Republican seats, projecting a net GOP gain of three to five. Recent polling in targeted districts such as TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, and the open TX-35 shows Democratic candidates holding competitive or leading positions, driven by incumbency advantages for figures like Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez plus shifts among Hispanic voters. This uncertainty over how many of the redrawn seats Democrats retain or flip, alongside suburban dynamics and the broader national environment, keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered between 11 and 13 seats. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout in majority-Hispanic areas, or unexpected national headwinds could widen the range before November voting.