Florida's congressional map, redrawn in a mid-2026 special session and upheld by the state Supreme Court, shifts several previously Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans by cracking urban and suburban voter concentrations, particularly in the Tampa Bay area and parts of South Florida. This structural change, enacted by the GOP-controlled legislature, leaves only a handful of competitive seats—such as the open FL-22 rated toss-up by multiple forecasters and races involving incumbents like Darren Soto in FL-9 or Jared Moskowitz in FL-25—where outcomes hinge on turnout, candidate performance, and any late national momentum. With most of the 28 districts rated safe or likely Republican and Democrats starting from an eight-seat baseline, trader consensus clusters around modest Democratic totals because small swings in those targeted districts could add or subtract a couple of seats without altering the overall Republican advantage.