Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace, fueled by the high-profile Tesla Roadster demo and related SpaceX and Grok Bot updates on October 16, has anchored trader expectations for the October 15–17 window. Recent daily averages of roughly 38–49 posts, visible in XTracker data and archive snapshots, align closely with the 90–114 bracket that now commands 68% implied probability. Continued replies to event buzz, ad-policy announcements, and platform features have sustained momentum without pushing into the 115–139 range, though any late-day surge could shift the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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