Recent inflation data showing consumer prices at 6.35% year-over-year in September, driven by utility tariff hikes and temporary supply constraints in key sectors, has kept traders balanced between holding the Bank of Russia key rate at 14% or trimming it by 25 basis points in December. The September hold after ten prior cuts, combined with the central bank's October 12 assessment that the new three-year budget aligns with its July forecast and supports gradual easing, has reinforced this split. Moderate third-quarter growth and pro-inflationary risks from fiscal expansion and capacity limits add to the uncertainty, while the next policy meeting on October 23 could clarify the path. Fresh inflation prints or shifts in regulated tariffs before year-end would likely widen the gap between the leading outcomes.