The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision carries an 83% market-implied probability of no change at the 2.25% policy rate, reflecting the recent sharp deterioration in Canadian labor data alongside contained underlying inflation. September employment fell by 68,300 jobs—far below expectations—pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% and highlighting softening demand that offsets earlier hawkish signals from the September meeting. While headline CPI has run above the 2% target amid elevated oil prices, core measures remain near the upper end of the target range, and analysts at TD Securities and others cite excess supply and trade-tariff uncertainty as reasons to stay patient. The October 19 CPI release and incoming growth figures represent the key near-term catalysts that could still shift the 17% odds of a 25-basis-point hike.