Recent Canadian employment data has reinforced trader expectations for a Bank of Canada hold at its October 28 meeting, with the overnight rate steady at 2.25%. September payrolls fell 68,300—well below forecasts—pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% and highlighting softening labor conditions that limit scope for tightening amid underlying inflation near the 2% target. Markets have priced in only a modest 13.8% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting caution over oil-price pass-through and U.S. tariff uncertainties weighing on growth. TD Securities and other forecasters now project an extended pause through year-end, with the September CPI release on October 19 serving as the key near-term catalyst that could shift the narrow odds of a move.