Recent data from Brazil’s Focus survey show economists revising 2026 inflation expectations higher to 5.22% while trimming their year-end Selic forecast to 13.25%, consistent with two additional 25-basis-point cuts in the remaining 2026 Copom meetings. Persistent IPCA readings above the 4.5% tolerance band, combined with elevated inflation expectations, have tempered enthusiasm for accelerated easing despite signs of slowing activity and credit demand. The September Copom decision lowered the benchmark rate to 13.75%, and subsequent communications kept the pace data-dependent. Political developments following the October first-round vote have introduced fiscal optimism that could support further cuts, yet sticky services inflation and labor-market tightness continue to anchor the gradual path reflected in current trader positioning around a November-December easing sequence.