**The current official USD/ARS rate near 1,515–1,535 reflects BCRA reserve accumulation exceeding $14.5 billion in 2026, supported by record exports and a fiscal surplus under the crawling band regime.** With the rate trading well below the inflation-adjusted ceiling of roughly 1,920–1,950, recent monthly inflation readings around 1.7–1.9% and analyst medians (BCRA REM near 1,614; BBVA at 1,630) point to only modest further depreciation through year-end. Strong external inflows and positive real interest rates have anchored expectations, positioning the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,699 brackets as the dominant outcomes. Key near-term catalysts include September–October inflation prints and ongoing BCRA dollar purchases, which continue to shape the narrow trading range observed since the band adjustments began in early 2026.