**Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD exchange rate at end-2026 centers on modest further depreciation from current levels near 1,513–1,535 ARS per USD.** The 54% implied probability on a close below 1,600 and 35% on the 1,600–1,699.99 bracket align with analyst forecasts and REM survey expectations of roughly 1,614–1,630 by year-end. This pricing reflects the Milei administration’s managed FX band policy, which prioritizes peso stability to sustain disinflation—monthly inflation held at 1.7–1.9% recently—with BCRA reserve purchases exceeding targets and positive real interest rates supporting the currency. The band ceiling, currently near 1,935 and adjusting monthly with inflation, provides ample headroom, while fiscal surplus and dollar-linked instruments have curbed speculative pressure. Key near-term catalysts include October–December inflation prints, BCRA reserve flows, and any pre-election policy signals.