**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53% implied probability to the official USD/ARS rate closing below 1,600 by end-2026, with the 1,600–1,699 bracket at 32%, reflecting expectations of continued gradual depreciation from the current ~1,513–1,535 wholesale level observed in mid-October.** This positioning stems from the Milei administration’s policy mix of fiscal surplus, BCRA dollar purchases exceeding $14.5 billion year-to-date, and a managed floating band that has kept the peso relatively stable despite monthly inflation near 1.7–1.9%. Recent data show exports reaching record levels, supporting reserve accumulation and limiting depreciation pressure, while economic activity has slowed—prompting IMF and market forecasts to revise 2026 GDP growth down to 2.1–3.0%. Analyst surveys (REM, BBVA, J.P. Morgan) cluster around 1,575–1,630 for December 2026, consistent with the market-implied path of roughly 11–24% annual weakening. Key near-term catalysts include the pace of inflation moderation, agricultural and energy export settlements, and any adjustments to the BCRA’s crawling band or interest-rate stance that could influence capital flows and hedging demand.