**António Guterres is scheduled to complete his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on December 31, 2026, with the Security Council actively conducting straw polls to select his successor for a January 1, 2027 start.** The process, formally opened in late 2025 under UN Charter rules and General Assembly resolutions, involves nominations from member states and requires at least nine Security Council votes without a permanent-member veto before General Assembly ratification. Multiple informal ballots through early October 2026 have narrowed candidates but produced no consensus, with Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica leading recent rounds amid shifting support and opposition from permanent members. Guterres has publicly signaled no interest in an extension or interim role, delivering farewell addresses focused on global challenges while confirming plans to return to Portugal at term’s end. No verified announcements, diplomatic initiatives, or institutional actions indicate early resignation, removal, or forced departure before December 31. The “No” consensus at 72.5% reflects trader assessment that standard term completion and the orderly succession timeline remain the baseline outcome, with any late disruption requiring an unforeseen Security Council impasse or external event not currently in evidence.