Rebeca Grynspan leads the Security Council straw polls as the frontrunner for the next UN secretary-general, reflecting her consistent top position among GRULAC candidates under the informal regional rotation and her prior roles at UNCTAD and as Costa Rica’s vice president. The fifth anonymous poll on October 7 showed her with nine encourage votes and six discourage, down slightly from the prior round, while Rafael Grossi placed second and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett’s support declined sharply. With António Guterres’s term ending December 31, 2026, the process remains open ahead of a potential color-coded ballot that could reveal permanent-member vetoes, and traders price in continued uncertainty given the lack of consensus and reports of interest in additional contenders.