Democrats' prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver of trader expectations around a potential third Trump impeachment. Republican majorities have repeatedly tabled recent articles introduced by Rep. Al Green and others, which cited alleged abuses tied to immigration enforcement operations by ICE and CBP, including civilian deaths, as well as broader claims involving tariffs and foreign policy actions. Democratic leaders have signaled caution, emphasizing the need for investigations over rushed resolutions and noting the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction. A shift in House control would allow articles to advance by simple majority, though removal remains improbable without substantial bipartisan support; markets reflect this dynamic through elevated probabilities conditional on electoral outcomes.