Trump's active public schedule, recent medical assessments confirming excellent overall health with strong cardiac function, and the absence of any announced departure plans anchor the 97.5% implied probability against resignation before 2027. High constitutional thresholds for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment, combined with Republican congressional majorities providing institutional protection, reinforce trader expectations that the president will complete the period. Speculation around midterm results or capacity concerns has not shifted pricing materially. Late developments such as acute health events, rapid post-election political realignment, or invocation of removal procedures could still alter the outcome before year-end.