Trump's earlier $2,000 tariff dividend proposal, floated in late 2025 and tied to IEEPA-based tariffs, never advanced to legislation and lost its primary funding source after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in February 2026 that those tariffs exceeded presidential authority. No subsequent bill authorizing a tariff-funded dividend has passed Congress, and alternative congressional measures remain stalled in committee. The president has since shifted emphasis to a broader $5,000 "Trump dividend" pledge linked to Republican midterm outcomes, with funding discussions now referencing general tariff revenue, investment inflows, or reconciliation, though none have produced enacted payments or mechanisms. With roughly ten weeks remaining before the December 31, 2026 deadline and no active legislative path or revenue allocation confirmed, traders assign a 94.5% implied probability against creation of the dividend.