Democrats' strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms represents the dominant factor behind the 77% implied probability that Trump faces impeachment before his term concludes. Multiple articles of impeachment have already been introduced in the current Republican-led Congress, including resolutions citing executive actions on immigration enforcement, military operations involving Iran, and alleged abuses of authority. Republican leaders have publicly stated that a Democratic majority would likely advance such measures rapidly after January 2027. While a House vote requires only a simple majority, Senate conviction for removal demands a two-thirds supermajority that remains improbable given partisan divisions. Trader consensus reflects this procedural path and the calendar window extending through 2028, tempered by uncertainty over whether Democrats will ultimately prioritize impeachment proceedings.