Traders assign a 95.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 because the Trump administration has relied on tightened sanctions, fuel shipment interdictions, and secondary measures targeting Cuban entities rather than deploying combat forces. Recent statements from President Trump emphasize reaching a deal without military action, while contingency planning by the Army Reserve remains limited to support assessments for potential Southcom needs and has not produced deployment orders. Cuba has responded by bolstering defensive preparations and keeping limited communication channels open, though formal negotiations have not advanced amid demands over political reforms. The short remaining window in 2026 reduces the scope for rapid escalation, though failure of economic pressure to extract concessions could still prompt reconsideration of military options before year-end.