The US trade embargo, reinforced by the May 2026 executive order and September OFAC regulations that expanded restrictions on indirect financial transactions, banking access, and travel, remains the primary structural barrier preventing American firms like McDonald’s from establishing operations in Cuba. Cuban authorities advanced Decree 167 in August and discussed franchise openings in June, yet no agreements, licenses, or public commitments have materialized, and recent US actions have further narrowed pathways for engagement. Traders assign 96% probability to no announcement by year-end because any resolution would require either congressional embargo relief or targeted exemptions that have not occurred. Late shifts remain possible only through an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough, specific OFAC authorization, or verifiable McDonald’s statement before December 31.