Ongoing conflict in the region, including Iranian attacks on vessels, a U.S. naval blockade, and insurance premiums at roughly 30 times peacetime levels, has kept AIS-visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 9–10 per day recently—about 11% of the pre-crisis baseline near 85. Daily counts have fluctuated between 5 and 17 over the past two weeks, with many vessels operating dark or via the southern Omani corridor under U.S. coordination. Oil flows remain sharply reduced, pressuring tanker rates and prompting widespread rerouting by major carriers. With the October 31 resolution date approaching, any near-term de-escalation, permit agreements, or escalation in strikes could materially shift daily transit volumes and trader positioning on thresholds.