Emmanuel Macron’s second and final presidential term concludes in May 2027, leaving minimal window for new initiatives amid a fragmented National Assembly and the onset of the 2027 campaign season following March municipal elections. Historical patterns show repeated references to Article 11 or shared-initiative referendums on institutional or policy matters that have not advanced to formal decrees, while current political dynamics prioritize legislative maneuvering and positioning for the next election over direct public consultation. Traders’ strong consensus on “No” reflects this absence of announced timetables or acute institutional deadlock requiring immediate recourse to the electorate. Late-session parliamentary impasse or unforeseen external shocks before year-end remain the primary variables that could prompt reconsideration.