Syria’s post-Assad leadership has prioritized severing Iranian weapons corridors and proxy networks, conducting arrests of Hezbollah-linked cells and reinforcing borders with Lebanon and Iraq. This shift followed the regime change in late 2024 and has prompted Iranian threats without triggering direct strikes on Syrian territory. Recent activity centers on Iranian-aligned operatives in southern Syria attempting rocket and drone preparations against Israel, met by IDF strikes including the October 9 targeting of a Quds Force-linked figure near the Lebanese border. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and Iran’s diminished regional posture, pricing a qualifying Iranian military action on Syria by late October at low single digits amid ongoing proxy friction rather than state-to-state escalation.